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Cuba Outlook

Raúl and Beyond

A Report of the CSIS Americas Program

AUTHOR

Peter DeShazo

September 2009

CSIS

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC &

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

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Cuba Outlook

Raúl and Beyond

A Report of the CSIS Americas Program

AUTHOR

Peter DeShazo

September 2009

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About CSIS

In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic

and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions

to decisionmakers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives

that look into the future and anticipate change.

Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War,

CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive

as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the

world’s preeminent public policy institutions.

Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC.

More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their

expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges

inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected

world.

Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999,

and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000.

CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should

be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2009 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

CIP information available on request.

ISBN 978-0-89206-587-5

The CSIS Press

Center for Strategic and International Studies

1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006

Tel: (202) 775-3119

Fax: (202) 775-3199

Web: www.csis.org

y

contents

Introduction

1

Raúl Castro in Power

1

The Cuban Economy

2

The Armed Forces

4

Cuban Society

5

Foreign Policy

5

Looking Ahead

7

Implications for U.S. Policy

8

Appendix. Outlook Series Agenda

10

About the Author

12

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