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Emerging Infectious Diseases and Future Threats
Chapter 25
EmErging infECtious DisEasEs
anD futurE thrEats
CHRIS A. WHITEHOUSE, P h D * ; ALAN L. SCHMALJOHN, P h D ; and ZYGMUNT F. DEMBEK, P h D, MS, MPH
introDuCtion
EmErging BaCtEriaL DisEasEs
Waterborne Diseases
foodborne Diseases
tick-borne Diseases
Emerging antibiotic resistance
EmErging ViraL DisEasEs
avian influenza and the threat of Pandemic influenza
severe acute respiratory syndrome
Emerging Paramyxoviruses
Emerging arthropod-borne Viruses: Dengue and West nile Viruses
gEnEtiCaLLY EnginEErED thrEats
summarY
* Microbiologist, Diagnostic Systems Division, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1425 Porter Street, Fort Detrick, Maryland
21702; formerly, Microbiologist, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, Utah
Branch Chief, Department of Viral Pathogenesis and Immunology, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1425 Porter Street, Fort
Detrick, Maryland 21702
Lieutenant Colonel, Medical Service Corps, US Army Reserve; Chief, Biodefense Epidemiology and Education & Training Programs, Operational
Medicine Department, Division of Medicine, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1425 Porter Street, Fort Detrick, Maryland
21702
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Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare
introDuCtion
Emerging infectious diseases, as defined in the
landmark 1992 report by the Institute of Medicine,
are diseases whose incidence has increased within the
past 20 years or whose incidence threatens to increase
in the near future. 1 Even though some “emerging”
diseases have now been recognized for over 20 years
(eg, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome [AIDS],
Lyme disease, Legionnaire’s disease), their impor-
tance has not diminished, and the factors associated
with their emergence are still relevant. Emerging
infections include diseases caused by new agents (or
newly described agents) and reemerging pathogens
(those whose incidence had previously declined but
now is increasing). This definition also includes or-
ganisms that are developing antimicrobial resistance
and established diseases with a recently discovered
infectious origin.
Many factors contribute to the emergence of new
diseases. In the United States, in particular, these
factors include increasing population density and
urbanization; immunosuppression (resulting from ag-
ing, malnutrition, cancer, or infections such as AIDS);
changes in land use (eg, deforestation and reforesta-
tion), climate, and weather; international travel and
commerce; and microbial or vector adaptation and
change (mutations which result in drug or pesticide
resistance). 1 Internationally, many of these factors also
hold true; however, many developing countries also
have to deal with war, political instability, inadequate
healthcare, and basic sanitation issues.
The numerous examples of “new” infections origi-
nating from animal species (ie, zoonoses) suggest that
the zoonotic pool is an important and potentially
rich source of emerging diseases. 2 Although classify-
ing AIDS as a zoonotic disease is controversial, 3 it is
now clear that both human immunodeficiency virus
[HIV]-1 and HIV-2 had zoonotic origins. 4-6 In addition,
as shown by the 2003 outbreak of monkeypox in the
United States, increasing trade in exotic animals for
pets has led to increased opportunities for pathogens
to “jump” from animal reservoirs to humans. The
use of exotic animals (eg, Himalayan palm civets) for
food in China and the close aggregation of numerous
animal species in public markets may have led to the
emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) coronavirus. 7
Many of the viruses or bacteria that may be poten-
tial bioweapons are considered emerging pathogens.
In particular, some of these agents have appeared in
new geographical locations where they have not previ-
ously been seen; for example, monkeypox suddenly
occurred in the US Midwest in 2003, and the largest
recorded outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever oc-
curred in Angola in 2005. Sometimes the specific use
of a pathogen in an act of bioterrorism can cause the
pathogen to be classified as an emerging or reemerg-
ing disease agent, as what happened with Bacillus
anthracis during the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United
States. Through increasingly easy molecular biology
techniques, completely new organisms (or significantly
modified existing organisms) can now be made in the
laboratory. The use of these methods is mostly benefi-
cial and necessary for modern biomedical research to
proceed. However, the same methods and techniques
can be used for destructive purposes and, along with
naturally occurring emerging infections, represent
significant future threats to both military and civilian
populations.
EmErging BaCtEriaL DisEasEs
Waterborne Diseases
pathogens responsible for gastroenteritis outbreaks
associated with recreational water exposure included
E coli O157:H7 (four outbreaks) and Shigella sonnei (two
outbreaks). Twenty dermatitis outbreaks associated
with spa or pool use were attributed to Pseudomonas ,
primarily P aeruginosa . 9
Emerging waterborne diseases constitute a major
health hazard in both developing and developed coun-
tries. In 2001 and 2002, 31 disease outbreaks associated
with contaminated drinking water were reported in
the United States, resulting in 1,020 ill people and 7
deaths. 8 During this same time, over 2,500 cases of
illness and 8 deaths nationally were associated with
recreational waterborne diseases. 9 Bacterial pathogens
associated with drinking water disease outbreaks
included Legionella species, Escherichia coli O157:H7,
and Campylobacter jejuni (one outbreak each), and
one outbreak involving infection with two different
bacteria: C jejuni and Yersinia enterolitica . 8 Bacterial
Vibrio cholerae and Cholera
Accounts of cholera date to Hippocrates. 10 Seven
worldwide cholera pandemics have occurred. An 1892
cholera outbreak in Hamburg, Germany, affecting
17,000 people and causing 8,605 deaths was attributed
to the inadvertent contamination of the city’s water
supply by bacteriologists studying the pathogen. 11 This
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Emerging Infectious Diseases and Future Threats
event underscores the potential for cholera to cause
widespread illness where water is not disinfected with
a modern bacteriocide such as chlorine. 11
In 1991, after almost a century without cholera, out-
breaks in Latin America resulted in about 400,000 cases
of cholera and over 4,000 deaths. 12 Off the Peruvian
coast, a significant correlation between cholera inci-
dence and elevated sea surface temperature occurred
between 1997 and 2000, which included the 1997–1998
El Niño event. 13 Some people believe that the eighth
worldwide pandemic began in 1992 with the emer-
gence and spread of a new epidemic-causing strain (see
below). 14 During 2003, 45 countries reported a total of
about 112,000 cases and almost 1,900 deaths from chol-
era. 15 Paradoxically, cholera cases in the United States
have decreased to about 10 cases per year during 1995
through 2000. Most of these cases were associated with
either travel or consumption of undercooked seafood
harvested along the Gulf coast.
Cholera occurs through fecal-oral transmission
brought about by deterioration of sanitary conditions.
Epidemics are strongly linked to the consumption
of unsafe water, poor hygiene, poor sanitation, and
crowded living conditions (Figure 25-1). Water or food
contaminated by human waste is the major vehicle for
disease transmission. Cholera transmission is thought
to require 10 3 organisms to exert an effect in the gut,
with 10 11 organisms as the minimum infective dose
able to survive stomach acid. 16
Before 1992, all cholera pandemics were caused
by the V cholerae serogroup O1 (classical) or El Tor
biotypes. Large outbreaks in 1992 resulted from trans-
mission of a previously unknown serogroup, V cholerae
O139, which has since spread from India and Bangla-
desh to countries throughout Asia, including Pakistan,
Nepal, China, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and
Malaysia. 17,18 Cholera vaccines have had mixed success.
Historically, live attenuated vaccines are more effective
than killed whole-cell vaccines. 19 No licensed cholera
vaccines are available in the United States.
Enterotoxin produced by V cholera O1 and O139 can
cause severe fluid loss from the gut. In severe cases,
profuse watery diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting can
lead to rapid dehydration, acidosis, circulatory col-
lapse, and renal failure. Successful treatment of cholera
patients depends on rapid fluid and electrolyte replace-
ment; antimicrobial therapy can also be useful.
from human clinical specimens and apparently are
pathogenic for humans. 20 Vibrio species are primarily
aquatic and are very common in marine and estuarine
environments and on the surface and in the intestinal
tracts of marine animals. V parahaemolyticus and V
vulnificus are halophilic vibrios commonly associated
with consumption of undercooked seafood. Diarrhea,
cramping, nausea, vomiting, fever, and headache are
commonly associated with V parahaemolyticus infec-
tions. V vulnificus , the most common source of vibrio
infections in the United States, results in gastrointes-
tinal symptoms similar to those of V parahaemolyticus
and may also lead to ulcerative skin infections if
open wounds are exposed to contaminated water.
Septicemia can also occur in infected persons who are
immunosuppressed or have liver disease or chronic
alcoholism, and septicemic patients can have a mortal-
ity rate of up to 50%. In most cases the disease begins
several days after the patient has eaten raw oysters.
Other human pathogenic species include V mimicus , V
Other Vibrios
fig. 25-1. Typical conditions that can lead to a cholera
epidemic. This photograph was taken in 1974 during a
cholera research and nutrition survey amidst floodwaters
in Bangladesh.
Photograph: Courtesy of Dr Jack Weissman, Centers for Dis-
ease Control and Prevention Public Health Image Library.
In recent years, some noncholera vibrios have
acquired increasing importance because of their asso-
ciation with human disease. Over 70 members are in
the family Vibrionaceae , 12 of which have been isolated
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Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare
metschnikovii , V cincinnatiensis , V hollisae , V damsela , V
fluvialis , V furnissii , V alginolyticus , and V harveyi; most
of these have been associated with sporadic diarrhea,
septicemia, and wound infections. 20
associated with nonproductive cough, abdominal pain,
and diarrhea. The disease may eventually progress to
respiratory failure and has a case-fatality rate as high
as 39% in hospitalized cases. Nonpneumonic legionel-
losis, or Pontiac fever, occurs after exposure to aerosols
of water colonized with Legionella species. 35-37 Attack
rates after exposure to an aerosol-generating source are
exceptionally high, often in the range of 50% to 80%.
After a typical asymptomatic interval of 12 to 48 hours
after exposure, patients note the abrupt onset of fever,
chills, headache, malaise, and myalgias. Pneumonia
is absent, and those who are affected recover in 2 to 7
days without receiving specific treatment. 38
Legionella is now recognized around the world as an
important cause of community-acquired and hospital-
acquired pneumonia, occurring both sporadically and
in outbreaks. Although 90% of Legionella infections
in humans are caused by L pneumophila , there are 48
named species of Legionella , with at least 20 known
to cause human infections. 39 Some unusual strains of
bacteria, which infect amoebae and have been termed
Legionella -like amoebal pathogens (LLAPs), appear to
be closely related to Legionella species on the basis of
16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. 40,41 Three LLAP
strains are now named Legionella species, 42 and one of
them, LLAP-3, was first isolated from the sputum of
a patient with pneumonia by coculture with amoebae
and is considered a human pathogen. 43
Legionella Species
Legionnaire’s disease was first recognized in 1976
after a large outbreak of severe pneumonia occurred
among attendees at a convention of war veterans in
Philadelphia. A total of 182 people, all members of
the Pennsylvania American Legion, developed an
acute respiratory illness, and 29 individuals died from
the disease. 21 The cause of the outbreak remained a
mystery for 6 months until the discovery by Joseph
McDade, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
microbiologist, of a few gram-negative bacilli, subse-
quently named Legionella pneumophila , 22 in a gram stain
of tissue from a guinea pig inoculated with lung tissue
of a patient who died from the disease. 23 Using the
indirect immunofluorescence assay, McDade showed
that the sera of patients from the convention mounted
an antibody response against the newly isolated bacte-
rium, 24 marking the discovery of a whole new family of
pathogenic bacteria. Retrospective analysis, however,
has shown that outbreaks of acute respiratory disease
from as far back as 1957 can be attributed to L pneu-
mophila . 24,25 The earliest recorded isolate of a Legionella
species was recovered by Hugh Tatlock in 1943 during
an outbreak of Fort Bragg fever. 26,27
Legionnaire’s disease is normally acquired by inha-
lation or aspiration of L pneumophila or other closely
related Legionella species. Water is the major reservoir
for legionellae, and the bacteria are found in freshwater
environments worldwide. Legionnaire’s disease has
been associated with various water sources where bac-
terial growth is permitted, including cooling towers, 28
whirlpool spas, 29 and grocery store mist machines. 29
The association between a potable shower and noso-
comial legionellosis was demonstrated 25 years ago. 30
The most common source of legionellosis in hospitals
is from the hot water system, 31 and sustained transmis-
sion of Legionnaire’s disease in the hospital can be dif-
ficult to control. 32 Community-acquired legionellosis
is thought to account for most infections. 33 A recent
Italian survey of household hot water systems found
bacterial contamination with Legionella species in 23%
of the homes and Pseudomonas species in 38%. One
Legionella species, L longbeachae , has been associated
with disease transmission from potting soil. 34
Legionnaire’s disease is an acute bacterial illness. Pa-
tients initially present with anorexia, malaise, myalgia,
and headache, with a rapidly rising fever and chills.
Temperatures commonly reach 102°F to 105°F and are
foodborne Diseases
More than 200 diseases are transmitted through
food, including illnesses resulting from viruses,
bacteria, parasites, toxins, metals, and prions. In the
United States the burden of foodborne illness is esti-
mated at approximately 76 million illnesses, 325,000
hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths each year. 44 Among
the bacterial pathogens estimated to cause the greatest
number of US foodborne illnesses are Campylobacter ,
Salmonella , Shigella , Clostridium , and Staphylococcus spe-
cies. 44 Emerging bacterial illnesses include E coli O157:
H7 and other enterohemorrhagic and enterotoxigenic
E coli , as well as antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Many of
the pathogens of greatest concern today (eg, C jejuni ,
E coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes , Cyclospora cay-
etanensis ) were not recognized as causes of foodborne
illness just 20 years ago, and some proportion of
gastrointestinal illness is caused by foodborne agents
that have not yet been identified. It is estimated that
62 million foodborne-related illnesses and 3,200 deaths
occur in the United States each year from unknown
pathogens. 44 Bacillus anthracis , although rarely seen
as a gastrointestinal illness in the United States, has
become a concern since cases occurred in 2000 (see
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below). Even in areas of the world where gastrointes-
tinal anthrax is more common, the oropharyngeal form
is underreported because physicians are unfamiliar
with it. 45 Unreported foodborne disease, deaths from
unknown food agents, 46 and chronic sequelae 47 may be
a huge unrecognized burden of illness.
asymptomatic, infection with this pathogen has been
associated with development of Guillain-Barré syn-
drome and arthritis. 52,53 Infants are more susceptible
to C jejuni infections upon first exposure. 54 Persons
who recover from C jejuni infection develop immunity.
Poultry colonized with Campylobacter species is a ma-
jor source of infections for humans. 55-58 The reported
incidence of Campylobacter species on poultry carcasses
has varied but has been as high as 100%. 57
Several virulence properties, including motility,
adherence, invasion, and toxin production, have been
recognized in C jejuni . 59 Along with several other en-
teric bacteria, C jejuni produces a toxin called cytolethal
distending toxin that works by a completely novel
mechanism: mammalian cells exposed to the toxin
distend to almost 10 times their normal size from
a molecular blockage in their cell cycle. 60 Although
cytolethal distending toxin is the best-characterized
Campylobacter toxin, its role in the pathogenesis of
human campylobacteriosis is unclear. 61
Because illness from Campylobacter infection is gen-
erally self limited, no treatment other than rehydration
and electrolyte replacement is generally recommend-
ed. However, in more severe cases (ie, with high fever,
bloody diarrhea, or septicemia), antibiotic therapy
can be used to shorten the duration of symptoms if it
is given early in the illness. Because infection with C
jejuni in pregnant women may have deleterious effects
on the fetus, infected pregnant women should receive
antimicrobial treatment. Erythromycin, because it is
safe, lacks serious toxicity, and is easy to administer,
is the drug of choice for C jejuni infections. However,
most clinical trials performed in adults or children
Bacillus anthracis
B anthracis is the causative agent of anthrax, a
naturally occurring zoonotic disease. The greatest
bioweapon threat from anthrax is through aerosol
dispersion and subsequent inhalation of concentrated
spores (for more details see Chapter 4, Anthrax). Gas-
trointestinal anthrax, however, is contracted through
the ingestion of B anthracis spores in contaminated
food or water. This form of the disease occurs more
commonly than inhalational anthrax in the developing
world, but is rare in the United States and other de-
veloped nations. 45,48 In one large outbreak in Uganda,
155 villagers ate the meat of a zebu (bovine) that had
died of an unknown disease. Within 15 to 72 hours,
143 persons (92%) developed presumed anthrax. Of
these, 91% had gastrointestinal complaints and 9% had
oropharyngeal edema; 9 of the victims, all children,
died within 48 hours of illness onset. 48 Gastrointestinal
anthrax can occur naturally in the United States, and
anthrax-contaminated meat has been found to be as-
sociated with gastrointestinal illness in Minnesota as
recently as 2000. 49 Purposeful contamination of food
or water is possible but would require a high infective
dose. Misdiagnosis may lead to a higher mortality in
gastrointestinal anthrax than in other forms of the dis-
ease; thus, awareness of this disease remains important
in anthrax-endemic areas and in the setting of possible
bioterrorism.
Campylobacter jejuni
Campylobacter was first identified in 1909 (then
called Vibrio fetus ) from the placentas and aborted
fetuses of cattle. The organism was not isolated from
humans until nearly 40 years later, when it was found
in the blood of a pregnant woman who had an infec-
tious abortion in 1947. 50 Campylobacter jejuni (Figure
25-2), along with C coli , have been recognized as agents
of gastrointestinal infection since the late 1970s. C jejuni
is considered the most commonly reported foodborne
bacterial pathogen in the United States, affecting 2.4
million persons annually. 51 Campylobacteriosis is an
enteric illness of variable severity, including symptoms
of diarrhea (which may be bloody), abdominal pain,
malaise, fever, nausea, and vomiting, occurring 2 to
5 days after exposure. Although many infections are
fig. 25-2. Scanning electron microscope image of Campylo-
bacter jejuni illustrating its corkscrew appearance.
Photograph: Courtesy of Janice Carr, Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention Public Health Image Library.
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